PODS Championship
Wednesday 5th March 2008
By Paul Krishnamurty
>>See all my advised bets
Formerly home to the Chrysler Championship, the Copperhead Course at Tampa Bay is well known to PGA Tour pundits. However, last year's switch from October to March for the inaugural Pods Championship presented a very different animal. With the rough much denser in spring, accuracy has very much overtaken driving distance in importance around this challenging layout.
Its no surprise then to see short, straight-hitting types in last year's top-5 such as Heath Slocum, JOHN SENDEN and Brian Gay. All of whom were big outsiders pre-tournament, as was the winner. Therefore as in Malaysia, my attention is mainly focussed on bigger-priced candidates.
Ernie Els starts clear favourite in single figures following that long overdue first Stateside win in four years. Fair play to Ernie, who had tested the patience of even his most loyal supporters over recent months. He played a superb final round at Palm Beach on Sunday, showing none of the nerves that have plagued him recently. Nevertheless, it would be asking a great deal to expect him to follow up immediately and at these odds he makes no betting appeal whatsoever.
The next two likeliest contenders, Justin Rose and Steve Stricker, are both overlooked if not entirely written off. Rose drove the ball much better at Palm Beach, but is still yet to challenge in 2008. Stricker must always come in for consideration nowadays such is his consistency, though the world no.4 has a surprisingly poor record in Florida. Another threat could come from Stewart Cink after his appearance in the World Matchplay final, an achievement that has been well factored into his price.
Now that driving accuracy is the key requirement, expect SCOTT VERPLANK to take a closer hand. Nobody scores better in that department over recent months than Verplank, who will surely leave behind a poor effort on his only previous Copperhead visit. Prior to a not unpredictable first-round exit at the World Matchplay, Scott had registered his first top-5 of the season and looks to be nicely coming into form. Another positive is his excellent Florida record, with five top-3 finishes in the last five years.
Speaking of the World Matchplay, it could be worth overlooking JONATHAN BYRD's poor performance at the Honda Classic in the hope that he can replicate his form from the previous week at Tucson. Byrd was magnificent in his defeats of Els and Romero before succumbing in a cracking match to Dove Mountain specialist Henrik Stenson. We also know he likes Copperhead, having finished 4th and 8th in the last couple of years.
Overseas players have a fine record at Copperhead, with Mark Calcavecchia last year the first American winner since 2000. In keeping with this trend, all of my other three selections are non-Americans available at 80/1 or more. The ever rising Australian contingent hold many of the best cards, with Robert Allenby, ROD PAMPLING, JOHN SENDEN and Nick O'Hern all making my original short-list.
Preference is for Pampling and Senden for two reasons, their very attractive odds and their proven Copperhead form. Allenby also has plenty of course form, but is half the price of his compatriots who are more or less his equal at home nowadays. Pampling has made the top-6 on this course twice previously including last year, and has a good overall record in Florida. He showed his best form in a while to knock out Rose and O'Hern at Tucson, before unluckily losing a marathon to Vijay Singh.
As for last year's runner-up Senden, he must make any shortlist when tee to green accuracy is emphasised. He really has improved since his first US win in 2006, regularly contending under suitable conditions including a place at last year's USPGA.
Finally, ALEX CEJKA is in good nick and could also thrive on a course that plays to his strengths. He spent all weekend just on the fringes of contention, with 7th a fair reward for his efforts. The German star has come close on a number of occasions to winning this side of the Atlantic, and is by no means a forlorn hope despite the 100/1 price tag.
