TPC Boston has reasonably generous fairways and larger than average greens; a combination that tends to favour the bigger hitters and places extra emphasis on high-class approach play. Again, this last point tends to favour the best players; particularly Woods.
Tiger’s record on this course reads seventh-second-40th-first-second. Not bad, but not his best by any means. However, the two weaker results came during spells when he wasn’t anywhere near his best, which is not the case right now. I wouldn’t say Tiger is at his absolute peak, but he’s pretty close. Twelve strokeplay starts in the US this season have produced five wins; a ratio that would have yielded an overall profit if taking this week’s 2.8 odds each time. His last five in the States have seen three wins and two second places, and TPC Boston will certainly play to his strengths more than Liberty National.
As always, the dilemma is whether to take short odds pre-tournament or to hang on in the hope of better odds in-running. Virtually all recent evidence suggests the latter is the right strategy, but I would still recommend taking some of the 2.8 now. And because I rate him an absolute banker for the places at least, I recommend playing others in the ‘Without Woods‘ market, besides one small exception.
Though there’s been little in his summer form to recommend, at 35/1 on Betfair, Mickelson rates a small win only saver. We should know by now that Mickelson is erratic by nature, and that he can storm back to form at any given moment. Recent venues such as Liberty, Hazeltine and Firestone were far from ideal but Boston will be a very different affair. At his best, Mickelson would be in single figures for this event.