US Open betting guide
- Wednesday, 13 June 2007
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The 2nd Major championship of 2007 starts on Thursday at Oakmont Country Club, making the Pennsylvanian course the most frequently used US Open venue. The scene of seven previous US Opens and three USPGAs, Oakmont has developed a reputation for being one of the toughest courses on the rota. In US Opens held there, the scoring average is four over par. More of the same is promised, with Tiger Woods describing it as “one of toughest tests we’ve ever faced in a US Open.”
Significant course changes have taken place since the last Major at Oakmont, the 1994 US Open. The demands though look more or less the same as then, and in every US Open in living memory. 210 bunkers and penal rough await to penalise the slightest inaccuracy, while the sloping, contoured greens are rated as quick and complex as Augusta. So as usual the winner is going to require pinpoint accuracy to both fairways and greens, a magical greenside touch and above all patience during a emotionally draining week.
Last year’s renewal provided some of the most volatile betting fluctuations of the year, as Phil Mickelson and Colin Montgomerie blew their chances having both traded at very short odds-on, enabling Geoff Ogilvy to sneak in the back door and win his first Major. Oakmont lends itself to a similar entertaining weekend, with several risk reward holes including three potentially driveable par-4s. In 1994, another dramatic Sunday resulted in Ernie Els, Loren Roberts and Colin Montgomerie having to return for a gruelling 20-hole play-off the following day with Els eventually emerging triumphant.
Despite winning twice at Pebble Beach and Bethpage Black, the US Open has arguably been the Major that suits Tiger Woods least. This stands to reason given the penalties for inaccuracy from the tee, the only area of his game that has ever looked less than perfect. Inaccuracy led to Tiger missing the cut at Winged Foot last year, and is the main reason he has made the top-10 on only four from ten tries as a professional. Also considering his last two efforts have been below-par and the nature of Oakmont, for once it may be worth taking on the great man.
Much revolves around Phil Mickelson in my view. A fully-fit Mickelson, in the form he showed to win at Sawgrass and given his magnificent if unlucky US Open record, would be a very confident selection. He has however pulled out of the last two events with a wrist injury and was still sporting bandages and limiting practice yesterday. This cannot have been the same meticulous preparation that has been the core reason for Mickelson’s fine form in the big events over the last three years. And even assuming he expects improvement over the week, a wrist injury must be a huge handicap.
Several other obvious contenders also have questions to answer. Its hard to see Vijay Singh enjoying these greens. Nor Sergio Garcia, who would have come in for serious consideration had he played better at the weekend. Adam Scott too could struggle on the greens, and must be devastated after a catastrophic finish on Sunday, his second blown opportunity in a row.
One US Open specialist who should love the pace of these greens is Retief Goosen. However, the twice former champion is opposed after several distinctly below-par efforts in recent weeks. Geoff Ogilvy, whilst seemingly perfectly suited to the US Open experience, is overlooked because of the extra commitments and pressure induced by being defending champion. The US Open is also the most likely Major winning opportunity for Luke Donald because of his fine long game but he too has not quite been at his best just lately.
Without a win outside South Africa in two years, the form of ERNIE ELS has started to prompt speculation that he is a declining force in the game. Back at the scene of his first Major win though, Ernie has a great chance to put the record straight this week. He looked to be close to his very best in the early part of the season, though in recent weeks Els has tended to throw in one ruinous round. Nevertheless, he’s been in the top-7 for greens in regulation in his last three events, and his magical touch around these greens will be a massive asset. Twice a US Open winner and three other times in the frame, Ernie has proved time and again he has all the qualities required to win this Major, making 25/1 good each-way value.
Last year at Winged Foot, focus naturally centred on the 18th hole disasters of Mickelson and Monty, overlooking the fact that JIM FURYK missed a three-foot putt on the last green to reach a play-off with Ogilvy. Nevertheless, it was another fine US Open for a player perfectly suited to the test and even more so Oakmont. The 2003 champion grew up locally and knows Oakmont better than anyone. As far as the key attributes are concerned, there is nobody straighter from the tee than Furyk and few better on quick greens. Having made the frame four times already in this event, Furyk must have a strong chance of landing a second US Open title.
Sooner or later, the bizarre sequence of 8 years without a European Major victory has to come to an end. Not too many obvious candidates spring to mind, but the best chance in my view lies with PADRAIG HARRINGTON. As with Els, his superb short game will be a pivotal asset on these treacherous greens, and he too seems to appreciate the specific demands of the US Open with four top-10s in the last seven years. I’ve been saying for a while that I fancy Harrington to have a big year in the Majors. He played well in 7th at Augusta, and an even better chance comes next month at Carnoustie but Oakmont too looks made for the Irishman.
Looking back at the 1994 result does confirm the sort of pointers the course characteristics would suggest. In Els and Monty, there were two thoroughly world-class players coming to the fore on a course where the best players should prosper. Of equal interest is Roberts, a lesser figure in the game but very straight off the tee and one of the all-time great putters. In a bid to find this year’s equivalent of Roberts, I’m going in with a trio of suitably profiled players at big odds.
Experience and good course management will certainly be big assets on this
course, something that SCOTT VERPLANK and STEVE STRICKER have in abundance. PGA Tour stalwart Verplank first won 22 years ago, and has been consistently accumulating prize money ever since with a combination of ultra-straight
driving and good putting. Verplank won his first event in six years at
April’s Byron Nelson Classic, and his last two events have both produced top-10 finishes, ranking 1st and 4th in the crucial greens in regulation stats.
In finishing 6th at Winged Foot last year, Stricker announced his return to
top-level golf after a long time out suffering from injury and loss of form. Since then he has performed consistently, with nine further top-10s in the meantime, twice as runner-up. The former World Matchplay champion has always been a class act, and is another who loves the US Open. Prior to last year’s 6th place, Stricker had twice previously made the frame in this Major. As with all the other selections, he should relish these fast greens.
If he hadn’t won the Masters at 150/1, there’s every chance Zach Johnson would have been a selection here at the same kind of odds. He really does have the perfect outsiders’ profile but lightning is unlikely to strike twice and Zach’s odds are now are more realistic 50/1. Better value lies with a player of very similar profile at three times the price, VAUGHAN TAYLOR. Going into Augusta, Taylor would have been around the same odds as Johnson. In fact he went well for a long way in that Major before slipping back to 10th. Taylor hits a lot of greens in regulation, and putts well on fast greens.
Moving on to the usual plethora of speciality bets, the two top nationality markets that interest me this week are “Top European” and “Top Australian”. As argued above, Harrington is fancied to contend but beyond him I can’t see too many obvious contenders. Donald and Garcia will probably be there or thereabouts, and Justin Rose seems to be thriving under a much reduced schedule. But I have doubts about Henrik Stenson and Paul Casey on this course, while many of the others are either out of form or simply not good enough.
At odds of 25/1, LEE WESTWOOD looks cracking value. Ignore the weekend’s disappointment, as his scorecard was completely ruined by two quadruple bogeys. He ranked 2nd for driving accuracy in Austria, continuing some impressive recent long-game stats. Furthermore, whereas few of the Europeans have ever prospered in this event, Westwood has twice made the top-10. Its hard to see him winning the title, but another top-10 finish could be enough to win the top European market.
A couple of years ago, the unconsidered outsider Peter Hedblom finished 11th to end up as top European, before following up with a highly respectable 21st at Winged Foot. A similar candidate this time around is Hedblom’s Swedish compatriot PETER HANSON at 80/1. He may well miss the cut embarrassingly on his US Open debut, as many of the lesser Europeans will, but all Hanson’s best form is on tough courses that reward accuracy so I give him a squeak in a market where many of the others are not fancied.
Using a similar line of argument, the top Australian market looks bursting with value. There are only 12 players in this heat, with Adam Scott a very weak favourite. Geoff Ogilvy is strong but very short odds, while Robert Allenby and Stuart Appleby both have uninspiring US Open records. Considering at least another three of the dozen look no-hopers, there must be some mileage in backing a combination of RODNEY PAMPLING, NICK O’HERN and NATHAN GREEN.
O’Hern in particular is the perfect player for a US Open with his accurate game, and it was no surprise to see him finish 6th at Winged Foot. Pampling has been one of the most consistent players on the PGA Tour this year and looks booked for another top-25 finish at least. Green is more speculative, but has shown plenty of good form both in the States and Australasia, particularly on hard golf courses with fast greens.
Several tournament match bets make much betting appeal, with both bookies and spread firms. Pick of the lot is KJ CHOI to beat Rory Sabbatini.
Sabbatini may well be the most improved player on the PGA Tour this year, but he’s still yet to show a liking for tough, penal courses that require patience. Choi on the other hand has a solid record on tough courses, and comes here in equally good form having won the Memorial Tournament on his last start. The choice here is between a fixed odds match bet at around Evens simply to finish higher than Sabbatini, or to buy his shot supremacy at 0.75 with Spreadex. With the latter bet, profit or loss is calculated by the margin of victory. So if we buy at 0.75 and Choi wins the match by two shots, the result makes up at 2, and therefore yields 1.25 points profit. Alternatively, a win by 10 shots would yield 9.25 profit, or a defeat by 4 would result in a loss 4.75 units. As I can see an impatient character like Sabbatini missing the cut badly, the spreads may offer the better route.
Two other match bets take the eye. Firstly, for all the reasons already stated, ERNIE ELS to beat Adam Scott. And finally another bet on VAUGHAN TAYLOR, this time to beat Charles Howell III. Rather like Sabbatini, Oakmont is a course that could emphasise Howell’s weaknesses rather than his strengths.
Good Luck!
US OPEN
3pts ew JIM FURYK @ 20/1 (LADBROKES, STAN JAMES, HILLS)
3pts ew ERNIE ELS @ 25/1 (GENERAL)
2pts ew PADRAIG HARRINGTON @ 33/1 (GENERAL)
1pt ew SCOTT VERPLANK @ 80/1 (GENERAL)
1pt ew STEVE STRICKER @ 100/1 (GENERAL)
1pt ew VAUGHAN TAYLOR @ 150/1 (GENERAL)
TOP EUROPEAN
2pts ew LEE WESTWOOD @ 25/1 (SPORTING ODDS, TOTE)
1pt ew PETER HANSON @ 80/1 (SPORTING ODDS, CORAL)
TOP AUSTRALIAN
4pts ew ROD PAMPLING @ 8/1 (SKYBET)
3pts ew NICK O’HERN @ 14/1 (SKYBET)
1.5pts ew NATHAN GREEN @ 20/1 (SKYBET)
72-HOLE MATCH BETS (FIXED ODDS)
11pts ERNIE ELS @ 10/11 (VS A SCOTT) (BOYLES, BET365)
11pts VAUGHAN TAYLOR @ 10/11 (VS C HOWELL) (SPORTING ODDS)
11pts KJ CHOI @ 10/11 (VS R SABBATINI) (EVS BOYLESPORTS, 1O/11 WITH BET365,
BETDIRECT, BETFRED, SKYBET)
72-HOLE MATCH BET (SPREADS)
BUY KJ CHOI 2pts @ 0.75 (VS SABBATINI) (SPREADEX)
2006/2007 STATS: -142pts
2005/2006 STATS: +144pts
ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED
VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT
5pts PADRAIG HARRINGTON @ 7/1
5pts HENRIK STENSON @ 10/1
3pts TIGER WOODS TO WIN GRAND SLAM IN 2007@ 40/1
10pts TIGER WOODS TO WIN 3 MAJORS IN 2007 @ 8/1
US MONEY LIST W/O TIGER WOODS
2pts ew TREVOR IMMELMAN @ 20/1
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