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Frys.com Open Betting Guide

Wednesday, 22 October 2008
Paul Krishnamurty
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Mike Weir

See my Castello Masters betting guide

ADVISED BETS

FRYS.COM OPEN

5pts win MIKE WEIR @ 10/1 (GENERAL)
1.5pts ew MARK WILSON @ 40/1 (GENERAL)
1pt ew MARK HENSBY @ 50/1 (GENERAL)
1pt ew BILLY MAYFAIR @ 66/1 (GENERAL)
0.5pts ew PAUL GOYDOS @ 125/1 (GENERAL, 150/1 TOTE)

CASTELLO MASTERS

3pts ew HENRIK STENSON @ 16/1 (GENERAL, 18/1 CORALS)
1pt ew ALEXANDER NOREN @ 50/1 (GENERAL)
1pt ew STEVE WEBSTER @ 50/1 (BETFRED, HILLS)
1pt ew SIMON DYSON @ 55/1 (BET365, TOTE)
1pt ew RICARDO GONZALEZ @ 80/1 (GENERAL)

2007/2008 STATS: +629pts

FRYS.COM OPEN

After yet another huge-priced Fall Series winner on another easy course, the Raptor Course at Grayhawk GC should present a much tougher test. Last year’s renewal produced a world-class winner in MIKE WEIR and a high-class leaderboard, so perhaps bookies will enjoy this one a little less.

Whereas the recent target golf courses have mainly rewarded putting, the emphasis at Grayhawk should be on tee to green accuracy, quality iron approaches and a top-class short game. This venue is also pretty exposed, making an ability to cope with windy conditions another essential attribute.

At 10/1, Weir heads the market and while I’m normally loathe to back defending champions, his chance is too obvious to ignore. Weir’s recent form is the best by some way, only missing the top-10 twice in his last seven events. Last year’s victory ended a long, barren spell for the Canadian, and I expect he’ll be equally determined this time. 2008 has been Weir’s best season in several, but surprisingly he still lacks a title despite a couple of runners-up spots.

Weir really does stand out as some way ahead of the rest. Tim Clark starts second favourite and at his best would appear to have the right credentials for a course where he made the top-20 last year. However I‘ve made a decision to avoid Clark for the time being, after one too many letdowns. At least until he breaks through the psychological barrier and registers that long overdue first Stateside win.

An inability to win also plagues the profiles of numerous other characters on this week’s shortlist. Locally based Pat Perez finished 6th last year and has been consistent in recent weeks. His last four starts have all yielded top-25s including a couple of top-10s, and I expect he’ll perform to this level again. No way on earth though can I consider taking 25/1 about a man who hasn’t won since a sole triumph on the Buy.com Tour eight years ago. Similarly while Scott Verplank looks to have his ideal set-up at Grayhawk, a record of five tournament victories in 23 years, and just one since 2001, is hardly a recommendation.

At his best Sean O’Hair represents a better class than most of the opposition and he did make the places last year. Its just a shame that he‘s only played well twice since the Masters. Tim Herron’s scrambling skills should be a considerable advantage at Grayhawk, and three top-8s from his last five starts make him a strong contender, if another plenty short enough considering he's only won once this century.

Few amongst this field have been more consistent recently than MARK WILSON, who looks worth a bet to gain consolation for a very near miss in Texas a fortnight ago. His temperament and ability to find the right shot under pressure impressed in Texas, suggesting a second win could be around the corner to add to a 2007 Honda Classic title.

Several Australians made the short-list. It will be heartbreaking if either Nick O’Hern or Matthew Goggin finally breaks their PGA Tour ducks this week, as I’ve backed both so many times before in these kind of circumstances with only the occasional place return. Both look certain to hit plenty of greens in regulations, and have decent short games.

Marginal preference though is for MARK HENSBY, a quality player who seems to be emerging from a terrible spell and has looked very convincing in contention before. Three consecutive top-30s have rekindled outside hopes of retaining his card by finishing in the top-125 on the money list. Every Fall Series event has so far gone to a player in a similarly desperate position, and Hensby looks one of the likeliest winners amongst this group. Grayhawk, where he finished runner-up last year, appears to suit more than recent venues.

In fact I’m backing all of last year’s top-3 in the hope of at least one repeat performance. BILLY MAYFAIR is another with local knowledge, which goes some way to explaining last year‘s good show. Top-10 in the Tour Championship on his penultimate start represents excellent recent form, and last week’s target golf affair was never likely to produce the best in him. The only downside, again, is that he hasn’t won for a decade but at least in his case the price is attractive and he has finished runner-up as recently as June.

Another Aussie, and another who hasn't won for a decade, who I could see going well at Grayhawk is Steve Elkington. However, he’s just nudged out of the outsiders spot in the staking plan by PAUL GOYDOS at 125/1. Its only a few months since Goydos was touched off by Sergio Garcia for one of the most prestigious titles of the year at Sawgrass. He’s usually worth a look on courses that reward accuracy and where wind is a factor. Its no coincidence that his last win came in the Hawaii-based Sony Open, where a similar emphasis applied.

Good Luck!