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Estoril Open de Portugal golf betting guide

Wednesday, 9 June 2010
Paul Krishnamurty
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Gregory Bourdy has had a consistent 2010 [Getty Images]

Given this pre-US Open slot, the Estoril Open was never likely to improve on it's status as one of the lesser events on the Race to Dubai. With just four of the world's top 150 players in the line-up, this is barely a higher grade than the Challenge Tour.

What was always going to be a tricky heat for punters is complicated further by the move to a venue we've not seen on the main tour since the previous century, and which has undergone substantial renovation during that period. Nevertheless, as explained below, previous event form may still be of some use.

COURSE AND KEY STATS

Penha Longa GC last hosted an event on the 2006 Challenge Tour, for which unfortunately there are no detailed stats. We do know, however, that like most courses in the region, the main defence comes from exposure to the wind. At less than 7,000 yards, driving distance is unlikely to be too important around this par 72. Rather, the undulating fairways should place a greater emphasis on accuracy, as good position looks essential in order to capitalise on the numerous birdie
opportunities.

For me, the key stats are likely therefore to be driving accuracy, plus greens in regulation. Furthermore, while we may not have any meaningful previous course form to evaluate, it could pay to consider form around other courses in the region that appear to have similar features, such as Madeira Island, Pula and this tournament's recent home, Oitavos
Dunes.

BETTING SELECTIONS

3pts ew GREGORY BOURDY @ 18/1 (GENERAL)

Following the frustration of watching the previous week's pick, Graeme McDowell, pip our selection, I'm not about to abandon a player on the basis of one disappointing result. While Bourdy never got in a blow at Celtic Manor, he did rank second for greens in regulation. He remains an in-form player, with a consistent 2010 record, who has shown a sound temperament when presented with opportunities before. Indeed, one of those three European Tour wins came in this event two years ago, and he also put up a sound defence, finishing seventh.

2.5pts ew JAMIE DONALDSON @ 20/1 (GENERAL)

Despite reservations about his bottle, I must give Donaldson another chance in absolutely ideal conditions. He's looked an imminent winner for the last year, and remains in excellent form as top tens on five of his last seven starts illustrates, all amongst stronger fields. He finished fourth in both 2007 and 2009 at Oitavos, excelling as usual in windy conditions. Granted, he has repeatedly come up short at the crucial moments, but at least Donaldson does have some winning pedigree from his Challenge Tour days.

1.5pts ew DAMIEN MCGRANE @ 40/1 (BETFRED, VCBET, LADBROKES)

McGrane is another with plenty of pedigree for this type of set-up, who will appreciate windy conditions more than most, especially if there's also some rain. Recent form is pretty good, with top 20s on four of his last seven starts, and the Irishman can also boast good form on those similar tracks in the region. In addition to finishing sixth in this event two years ago, McGrane has twice made the top ten at Madeira
Island.

1pt ew DAVID HORSEY @ 50/1 (GENERAL)

Horsey has been mentioned in this column in far stronger events than this already this year, and very much takes the eye at 50/1. He's very accurate off the tee, and played pretty well in 12th at Oitavos last year. A repeat of the form shown during the Gulf Swing, or when runner-up recently at the Italian Open, would be very competitive.

0.25pt ew GARY CLARK @ 250/1 (GENERAL)

We've seen numerous huge-priced outsiders winning in the last couple of seasons, and this tournament looks ripe for another. Clark's claims on his European Tour form are extremely limited, but he does have a good record on the Challenge Tour. Furthermore, he has some interesting form in the region. He was sixth at Madeira Island, and also made the top ten there in 2008. Clark has also ranked in the top five for driving accuracy on two of his last three starts.