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US Masters golf betting tips: Phil Mickleson, Padraig Harrington, Anthony Kim, Paul Casey, Henrik Stenson, Robert Karlsson

Anthony Kim features in this week's golf betting tips for the 2009 US Masters

So who are Tiger’s main dangers? Obviously, Phil Mickelson has to feature highly on anybody’s list, irrespective of last week’s missed cut in Houston. His recent form, winning at Riviera and Doral, points to yet another strong challenge in the major that has always suited Lefty best. From the last eight years, Phil Mickelson’s Augusta record reads two wins, six top-5s and only once outside the top-10. That suggests to me that odds of 9/1 to win the event, or 6/1 without Tiger Woods, are perfectly justified, even though I’m not about to break the habits of a lifetime and get involved.

I would be far less inclined to back Padraig Harrington though. Of course he will, as ever, have based his entire preparation around peaking this week, but there’s nothing in his 2009 form to suggest Pod is a serious contender. Nor is there really much in his Augusta history to get too excited about. A distant 5th place last year was his joint-best, but he’s never challenged for the title here and overall this must be his weakest major.

Nor am I even
vaguely interested in backing Rory McIlroy on his Augusta debut, despite holding him in the very highest regard. This course is simply not a place for rookies, which explains why no debutant has won since 1979. Even the best players tend to take at least two or three years to get used to these unique, undulating, lighting fast greens, and scrambling and putting are the two areas where I’d expect a novice to struggle. Rory McIlroy will never have played competitively on any course quite like Augusta, and in my view will do well just to make the cut. For similar reasons, that other brilliant debutant Anthony Kim is also instantly overlooked.

Even if Padraig Harrington or Rory McIlroy do struggle, I’m expecting a big week for European golf. Back in the 80s and 90s, the Masters was seen as by far our best chance amongst the three US majors, but the recent record has been grim. That’s particularly the case for British players, who have managed just two, non-challenging top-5 finishes since Nick Faldo won his third and final green jacket thirteen years ago.

That has to change sooner or later, and in Houston at the weekend, we saw the man best placed to step up. Having earmarked PAUL CASEY for this months ago, I must admit watching him land that first US title was a tad frustrating, as his Augusta odds have inevitably been cut dramatically. When Paul Casey finished 6th on his course debut back in 2004, many of us noted him as a future winner, and since then he’s confirmed that Augusta is indeed the ideal set-up for him. He’s finished 10th and 11th in the last two, holding a big chance going into Sunday last year before a poor final round. As his superb start to 2009 shows; two prestigious titles, runner-up at the World Matchplay; Paul Casey has improved considerably in the meantime. And being one of the fittest players on tour, he is more likely than most to overcome the handicap of trying to win two on the bounce.

Casey isn’t the only European fancied this week by any means. Sweden’s World Cup winning duo HENRIK STENSON and ROBERT KARLSSON both look well suited to Augusta, and showed strong signs of returning to peak form last week. Its important to remember that it takes most players a few years to peak around Augusta, so the course records of both are better than they would first appear.

Henrik Stenson’s three visits have yielded one missed cut, followed by 17th place in each of the last two years. Nothing special, but a fair early return nonetheless. In the meantime,
he’s started to come of age in the majors, making the frame at both Birkdale and Oakland Hills in the latest two, and I expect to see similar improvement this week. A long course with wide fairways and four reachable par-5s represents optimum conditions for Henrik Stenson; which we saw when he trounced world-class opposition at last year’s Nedbank Challenge. 3rd place in Houston looks like the ideal warm-up, too.

Karlsson would also appear to have the perfect game for Augusta. 8th place last year, on only his second visit, was an excellent effort, in line with
his weekly form during an outstanding season which saw him land the
Order of Merit. Taking the whole year’s form into account, there was arguably no better player in the world during 2008. He hasn't quite hit those heights just yet in 2009, but there were very positive signs in his first three rounds in Houston.