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US Open golf 2009 betting guide

Tuesday, 16 June 2009
Paul Krishnamurty
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US Open golf betting: Paul Casey is tipped to do well at Bethpage Black

Never underestimate the ability of 18 holes of golf to transform a narrative. A fortnight ago, while nobody serious would have disputed Tiger Woods' right to favouritism for the year's second Major, there were several question marks surrounding the great man. Only once since returning from injury had Woods looked anywhere close to his peak, and even his first three rounds at the Memorial Tournament were far from flawless. Now, after one magical 65 to hunt down a world-class leaderboard on the final day at Muirfield Village, it's hard to find anyone who doesn't think he will justify odds below 2/1 this week.

It's easy to see why, if we cast our minds back to the last time this Major was played at Bethpage Black in 2002. On that occasion, Tiger went odds-on after a few holes and never looked like surrendering the lead. Only Phil Mickelson got close to him, losing by three shots. But before getting carried away, it should be remembered that we've been here before. When Woods similarly overturned a deficit to land yet another title at Bay Hill in his last event before the Masters, it prompted a similar plunge in odds for Augusta, another course that we know he adores. Yet as it turned out, Tiger barely got going until the final day and never looked like winning.

I was very much one of those pro-Tiger voices in April, and the fact that the first two Major venues were ideal set-ups for him motivated the 20 point long-term bet on him winning three majors this year. That bet will be dead unless Woods wins this week at Bethpage Black, but if he does land a fourth US Open title then the 12/1 would represent his realistic chance of adding the Open and PGA titles. If it were not for that existing position, perhaps I would have considered backing Woods at 7/4 this week, but I probably would have argued that the price is too short. Tiger could have been backed in-running at double figures for both of his 2009 titles and it is a very long time since he ran away with an event.