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US Open golf 2009 betting guide: Phil Mickelson

Golf betting for the 2009 US Open at Bethpage Black: Phil Mickelson 20/1

Doubts over Mickelson's form have also forced his odds out to double what one might have expected. Here, however, I feel that there has been a huge over-reaction. Granted, his mind has been understandably elsewhere as he comes to terms with his wife's illness, but if Mickelson wasn't serious about this week, surely he wouldn't have bothered with a warm-up at Southwind. Again, a poor final round probably emboldened layers, but anyone who has followed Lefty's career in any detail will know to ignore that as he rarely thrives when there is no chance of winning. The bottom line is that the world's second best player is a tournament specialist, four times runner-up including on this course. On that basis, Mickelson is simply not a 20/1 chance and therefore must warrant a win only saver at least.

Nevertheless, besides that one punt on Mickelson, I am not too interested in taking on the favourite and prefer playing the 'Without Woods' market. My chief selection here is a player that I've had in mind for Bethpage for nearly a year, PAUL CASEY. It was with one eye on this major that I picked Casey as a long-term selection for the Race to Dubai, and so far I couldn't have asked for more. He's been the best player in the world this year in my view, landing three prestigious titles and rising from 42nd to 3rd in the rankings in the process. After a week off to prepare, everything is in place for a strong tilt at his first major.

Casey has become so much more consistent with experience, capable of relentlessly hitting greens in regulation and waiting for chances to arise, rather than the ultra-attacking style of old. Not only does he have the perfect game and temperament to win a US Open now; a Major in which he's already made the top-15 twice; but he has the power to deal with Bethpage. Whereas most players will have no option but to chip out and take their medicine when missing fairways, Casey is one of the only players besides Woods with enough strength to manufacture recovery shots out of the thickest rough.