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US Open golf 2009 betting guide: Paul Casey

Paul Casey at 18/1 without Tiger Woods for the 2009 US Open at Bethpage Black

The Englishman has not only overtaken Garcia in the rankings list, but also last year's dual Major hero Padraig Harrington, who needs to find dramatic, immediate improvement just to figure over the weekend. It has become widespread knowledge that Harrington tries to peak at the majors, but it would be silly to paint his recent failures merely as 'preparation'. Pod hasn't made a top-10 since January, making it hard to see even a repeat of his 8th place on this course in 2002, let alone a fourth Major title.

Three more very obvious candidates deserve a mention. Geoff Ogilvy has assumed second favouritism because of those doubts surrounding Mickelson, and in doing so all appeal has disappeared from his price. He certainly is a contender, having already won this major and proven time and again how much he enjoys the big occasion, but like Woods, is opposed on value grounds. The same applies to tournament specialist Jim Furyk, who has gone close for me so many times in this event, not least when runner-up in 2006 and 2007. It's impossible to argue with his recent form, with nothing lost in defeat to Tiger last time out. On the downside, Bethpage is the only US Open venue where Furyk has missed the cut this century.

STEVE STRICKER also has a fine US Open record, making the top-5 twice in the late-1990s and going close in both 2006 and 2007. If only he hadn't disappeared into the wilderness for the first part of this decade then Stricker may well have won this, or another major by now. Indeed, it must bode very well for Stricker that right in the middle of that slump; a period during which he barely made a cut; he managed to reach the top-20 on this gruelling course. Things couldn't be more different nowadays, with a win on his penultimate start a thoroughly deserved return for another very consistent season. That was his sixth top-10 of 2009, and he has only missed the top-25 twice.

CAMILO VILLEGAS showed last year that his game is very well suited to majors, and this looks a good opportunity for the talented young Colombian to confirm his star potential to the widest possible audience. Villegas finished 9th in the US Open at Torrey Pines, a not dissimilar test to Bethpage, and 4th at Oakland Hills in the PGA, before winning his first pair of top-class titles during the Fedex Cup. He hasn't yet hit quite that peak in 2009, but top-15s at Sawgrass and Augusta, plus top-5s at Doral and Torrey Pines, confirm that his game is in good nick and a big prize looks on the cards sooner or later.