US Open 2009 betting guide: Advised golf bets
US Open golf betting: Ian Poulter 14/1 to finish top European
It's not impossible to imagine last year's 3rd, Lee Westwood, bouncing back from a miserable run on a course that looks ideal for his long, straight driving, and there are certainly worse 100/1 shots. Another pair of Englishmen, IAN POULTER and Luke Donald, also have claims. Donald made the top-20 very early in his career on this course, and might have been considered had he not become so frequently disappointing when in contention.
In contrast, nine times worldwide winner Poulter has deep reserves of 'bottle' and will surely break through in the States before long. Only Casey has improved more than Poulter in the last twelve months. He's gone from being a figure of ridicule after comparing himself to Tiger, to a frequent contender at the highest level. The turning points were at last year's Open, where he finished a gallant runner-up, and topping the European points list at the Ryder Cup. This year he's stepped up a gear, regularly challenging in elite US events, not least when 2nd at Sawgrass and 5th at Quail Hollow in consecutive weeks. I could see Poulter challenging for the biggest prize this week, but ultimately better value may lie in an each-way bet at 14/1 in the 'Top European' market.
Finally, the 'Top US Without Woods' market is always worth looking at in this major. Recently, the market has been dominated by Mickelson and Furyk, who have won five times out of nine this century between them, but there's often some mileage in searching for big-priced outsiders. In the not too distant past, this has been won by Mediate, John Huston, Jeff Maggert and Mark Brooks, all of whom fitted a typical US Open profile. With all due respect to Mickelson, Furyk and Stricker, the one that interests me is the incomparably less famous JOHN MERRICK.
It would be a miracle if he won, (though there are worse 350/1 chances on Betfair), but he is well capable of reaching the top-10, which would make him very competitive in this market. Merrick has already demonstrated his major credentials, by finishing 6th at Torrey Pines last year, and repeating the trick with an even more impressive performance on his Masters debut. His claim rests on an ability to drive long and straight, an ideal combination for Bethpage.
Advised bets for the 2009 US Open golf tournament at Bethpage Black:
2.5pts win PHIL MICKELSON @ 20/1 (LADBROKES, BETFAIR)
WINNER WITHOUT TIGER WOODS
3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 18/1 (GENERAL, 20/1 EXTRABET)
2.5pts ew STEVE STRICKER @ 22/1 (GENERAL)
2pts ew CAMILO VILLEGAS @ 30/1 (BETFRED, BET365, PADDY POWER, 33/1 EXTRABET)
1pt ew ROBERT ALLENBY @ 60/1 (PADDY POWER, BET365)
TOP EUROPEAN
3pts ew IAN POULTER @ 14/1 (SPORTINGBET, PADDY POWER, EXPEKT)
TOP US WITHOUT WOODS
1pt ew JOHN MERRICK @ 66/1 (HILLS, EXPEKT, 80/1 EXTRABET)
LONG-TERM ALREADY ADVISED
RACE TO DUBAI
2.5pts ew ROSS FISHER @ 20/1
2.5pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 20/1
6pts win PAUL CASEY @ 8/1
1.5pts ew OLIVER WILSON @ 33/1
20pts TIGER WOODS TO WIN EXACTLY THREE MAJORS @ 12/1
2009 OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP
5pts ew SERGIO GARCIA @ 16/1
2008/2009 STATS: -27pts
2007/2008 STATS: +618pts
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