Following a poor week as defending champ in Shanghai, Phil is hard to fancy on a course where he’s done nothing special in three attempts to date. Sentosa just looks too narrow for anything other than a peak-form Mickelson.
Poulter won this title last year coming off a break, and played reasonably in 13th at Sheshan. He still hasn’t made a top 10 since the Masters, but a repeat of his Ryder Cup form would take the world of beating.
With three weeks left, Kaymer is struggling to get over the line in the Race To Dubai. His performance level has dropped markedly over the past fortnight, making the task on this course debut even tougher. If he returned to form, however, this layout is ideal.
Well done, Francesco, I take it all back! What possible argument could be made about a man’s temperament after he leads all the way in a WGC event, beating the world number one head-to-head and the rest of the field by nine shots? It could be the making of him, but I’m still reluctant to support someone four days after winning their first title in four years.
G-Mac has hardly put a foot wrong since a poor finish cost him victory in this last year. A fourth title of a magnificent campaign would throw down a daunting challenge to Kaymer in the Race to Dubai. He came in for very close consideration, but it was hard to stomach taking less than a third of last year’s odds, especially after an ordinary performance at Sheshan.
Sixth at Sheshan maintained an excellent run, which has seen the Aussie make 11 of last 12 cuts, including six top 15s and a win last month in Portugal. That is reflected in shortened odds though.
Padraig was runner-up here in 2008, but just 38th last year when in much worse form. Despite a recent win in the Johor Open, he’s closer to the 2009 level right now, and given his constant inaccuracy, is likely to struggle around here.
Noh hasn’t quite lit up the last fortnight in Asia as many of us had expected him to, although youngsters can always be forgiven inconsistency. A greater concern is that he was well beaten on both previous visits, albeit before this year’s improvement.
It is only two months since one of Miguel’s best ever wins at Crans so I wouldn’t write him off, but there was little in last year’s 45th, or last week’s 41st to justify support.
Just when he needed it for money list reasons, Kjeldsen returned to his best to finish runner-up at Valderrama, his second top three in five starts. He has some form in Asia so warrants consideration.
On European form, Luiten is the form pick after three straight top-fives in Spain and Portugal. These conditions will be completely different.
After becoming the youngest ever European Tour winner, Manassero came back to earth in elite company last week. He already looks a contender for most events, including this one.
JEEV MILKHA SINGH
Jeev won this in 2008, when in much better form than this year. A couple of recent top 20s in the US offer some hope, however
Lawrie made the shortlist, as the owner of a good record in Asia and some excellent recent numbers. Prior to a wholly predictable failure at Valderrama, he’d registered consecutive top-six finishes and four top 10s from nine starts. Nobody is driving it straighter right now.
Runner-up at Valderrama last time was just reward for an excellent campaign which has yielded 11 top 20s. However his collapse once the pressure was on there illustrated why McGrane can rarely be trusted for betting purposes.
2010 STATS: +8pts
LONG-TERM ALREADY ADVISED
5pts MARTIN KAYMER TO WIN THE RACE TO DUBAI @ 9/1