The rest are all prospects at big prices. DANNY WILLETT, RAFAEL CABRERA-BELLO and PAUL WARING may all achieve great things in the course of time, and Kaymer’s victory last year suggests inexperience is no great handicap around this course. After grabbing 3rd place for us last time at 90/1, we’re now in front on Willett and I intend to keep backing this outstanding prospect until he breaks through. Again, his best chance of success right now is on this type of target golf course.
Cabrera-Bello has already made quite an impact since graduating from the Challenge Tour, and this week’s 100/1 odds look an over-reaction to three consecutive missed cuts in decent company. Prior to that bad run, he’d made eight top-20s from eleven 2009 starts. Interestingly, the young Spaniard played this course as a virtual unknown in 2007 and finished a perfectly respectable 33rd. I’ve said before that I expect his breakthrough to come in a low scoring, target golf affair, and nothing has changed that view yet.
Finally, Waring is not quite as well-regarded as the other two, but made a big impression as a rookie last year. This big-hitter endured a miserable start to 2009, but has returned to form in recent weeks, with a decent 21st at Wentworth before 10th last time out at Celtic Manor. Furthermore, he carries a reputation as being a superb exponent of bad-weather golf, which could yet make a mockery of his 200/1 quote.
BMW INTERNATIONAL OPEN
3pts ew RETIEF GOOSEN @ 18/1 (BOYLESPORTS, SPORTINGBET)
2pts ew ALVARO QUIROS @ 28/1 (BET365, BETFRED, STAN JAMES)
1pt ew THOMAS AIKEN @ 66/1 (GENERAL)
1pt ew DANNY WILLETT @ 80/1 (BET365, BLUESQ)
0.5pt ew RAFAEL CABRERA-BELLO @ 100/1 (GENERAL, 110/1 SKYBET)
0.5pt ew PAUL WARING @ 200/1 (BET365, BLUESQ)
LONG-TERM ALREADY ADVISED
RACE TO DUBAI
2.5pts ew ROSS FISHER @ 20/1
2.5pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 20/1
6pts win PAUL CASEY @ 8/1
1.5pts ew OLIVER WILSON @ 33/1
2009 OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP
5pts ew SERGIO GARCIA @ 16/1
2008/2009 STATS: -75pts
2007/2008 STATS: +618pts