Next up is the list of outsiders who narrowly missed out on selection. These include recent selections Steve Marino and Mark Wilson, the former remaining a winner waiting to happen while the latter is a huge price on his late 2008 form. Lucas Glover is good enough to be winning again soon, and it will be at a big price when it comes. Local favourite Tim Herron has been placed before on this course, and is a very tempting each-way choice at 200/1.
The four that did make the staking plan are all available at 80/1 or better, TROY MATTESON, RYAN PALMER, BUBBA WATSON and SCOTT PIERCY. Matteson has been playing some outstanding stuff from tee to green since the autumn, and looks well up to winning a second PGA title. 23rd after a slow start at Waialae was a perfectly reasonable opening effort of 2009, and quite frankly his odds on Betfair, (190 at present!), are an insult.
Palmer, runner-up in 2006, tends to thrive on courses he can attack and is a birdie machine on his day. He played pretty well last week in the Bob Hope before slipping back on Sunday, as did the massive hitting Watson. If JB Holmes can tame this venue, then so certainly can Bubba, one of the very few players alive who actually drive it further. Bubba has managed to get into contention several times in his first few years on tour, and when the first win comes it will be on a course like this one, where he finished a promising 8th on his 2007 course debut.
Finally, of two highly promising Nationwide Tour recruits, Piercy narrowly gets the verdict over Webb Simpson. Both have made an excellent start to their careers at the higher level, Simpson making consecutive top-10s with Piercy slightly worse in 12th and 19th. However, of the pair Piercy achieved more at the lower level, winning twice in 2008, so probably shouldn’t be twice the odds of his peer. Furthermore, Piercy already has a highly encouraging effort on this course to his name, finishing 15th on his sole visit three years ago with four sub-70 rounds.