Thanks to another sterling effort to win that elusive first title when finishing fourth on Sunday, bookies have installed Fowler as favourite on his home course. Having finished seventh last year, his chance is obvious, but a best price of 12/1 is simply too short. Backing the favourites at Summerlin through the years has been a costly affair.
It is very easy to make a strong case for all the big names in this line-up, none more so than Watney. He’s had a cracking season against much stronger company and finished like a train last time in fourth place at the Tour Championship. Watney also rates very highly in the putting and birdie stats, and is only overlooked because of the record of short-priced players here.
Again, Mahan’s best reads very well in this company. He’s already won twice this year including the WGC-Bridgestone, and had some good moments at the Ryder Cup. He wasn’t beaten that far in the last two renewals, finishing 24th and 14th without challenging.
Nobody fits the bill in terms of course form better than Chad, who has been second and third in the last two renewals. Last week’s 13th place was his best effort in four months.
Another very strong candidate. Hoffman loves this type of birdie-fest and has three top 15s at Summerlin. If retaining the career-best form seen during the FedEx Cup series, he would take the world of beating, but he is priced on that level rather than his longer-term form.
Sixth last time at Sea Island was easily Howell’s best result of the summer, so he could come into the argument on a course where he’s registered five top 20s.
Few are in better form than Deleat, whose Fall Series run of three straight top 25s, twice inside the top six, has comfortably saved his card. Interesting on his course debut.
Atwal is also bang in form, finishing third at Sea Island to prove his recent Wyndham Championship victory was no fluke. He made the top 25 on his last Summerlin visit in 2007.
Senden is in typically good ball-striking form right now, but has yet to better 25th at Summerlin after four attempts. I doubt he’ll hole enough putts.
Still searching for his first title, Na looks a strong candidate on both recent and course form. He’s registered three top 25s at Summerlin, has made his last nine cuts, including third on his penultimate start at Cog Hill.
Only the vastly reduced odds deterred me from backing McNeill, whose Summerlin record reads first, second and 15th. He has dire money list problems and had shown nothing for ages, but suddenly found some form at the weekend to make the top 20.
Whatever his reputation, Kim has shown absolutely no encouragement since returning from hand surgery, and as he missed the cut on his sole previous visit, looks one to oppose.
Sabbatini was awful when carrying our cash last week, but still made the shortlist at a massive 90/1. He’s made three top tens before at Summerlin, and has enough form this summer to put last week’s disappointing effort behind him.
Allen is interesting at 125/1. The Champions Tour star has already reproduced his best form against his juniors during this Fall Series, finishing runner-up at the Viking Classic, and was third on his last visit to Summerlin in 2008.
If you’re looking for a real rank outsider like some of those previous Summerlin champions, 200/1 chance Stankowski could be the man. He is a prolific birdie-maker, who needs cash fast to save his card. Stankowski hasn’t played Summerlin since 2003, but previously registered a couple of top tens here.
2010 STATS: +12pts
LONG-TERM ALREADY ADVISED
5pts MARTIN KAYMER TO WIN THE RACE TO DUBAI @ 9/1
N.B. BRETT WETTERICH WAS A NON-RUNNER LAST WEEK