Whatever his obvious claims, nobody is going to get rich backing Luke Donald, especially when starting as favourite. Granted, there is a clear case for these odds, in that the course set-up is ideal and that last week was just the latest of several near-misses. However, it is four years since Donald last won an event, and I doubt there was a single punter out there who was surprised when he threw away another winning chance with a double-bogey at Wentworth’s 71st hole.
It took about three seconds to forgive Kaymer’s disastrous start at the new Wentworth, and all of last week’s confident comments still apply. The German will be a regular pick this summer. At first glance, this positional track doesn’t appear particularly likely to favour Kaymer, but 25th place during his rookie season of 2007 was hardly a bad result.
A rare home start for Sergio is bound to attract the crowds, but he remains unbackable on any of this season’s evidence from either tour. Even in Spain, where his record of seven top fours from his last ten events is admirably consistent, Garcia has repeatedly failed to finish the job or hole putts under pressure.
Similar comments to Donald apply to the younger of the Molinari brothers. Bookies are understandably wary of offering attractive place returns about such a consistent player, who ticks every box in terms of his skills set, but he is unbackable at prohibitive odds having failed to win since 2006.
Quiros is bound to have his supporters after that recent Spanish Open win, not to mention much top-class form on various continents. Nevertheless, his principal advantage with the driver will be of little benefit around this positional course.
Only vastly reduced odds deter me from backing Canizares. He was runner-up in 2007,when in far worse form than we’ve seen over the last month. His long game had been impeccable going into Wentworth, and even while his final result there was ordinary, he was on the fringes of contention after three rounds. Keeping that good form going for a fifth straight week will not be easy, though.