There’s no contest for the most in-form candidate, with Simon Dyson‘s two wins and four top-7s from his last five events leading the way. While there’s certainly no quibbling with that, it does suggest to me that he has had his winning turns for now. Nor is there any arguing with Retief Goosen’s class, but a birdie-fest looks far from ideal for the twice former US Open champion, and he has been truly awful when in contention this summer.
If there were any sign that he were back to his best, then 40/1 about Robert Karlsson would be the bet of the summer. The reigning Order of Merit champion is ideally suited to this kind of course, and has made the top-3 on both previous visits. Unfortunately, his season has been curtailed by injury and ‘Sir Bob’ hasn’t yet given any real hint of a return to form.
Karlsson’s predecessor as Order of Merit champ, Justin Rose, has started to find some form on recent US starts, and made the initial shortlist. Another course specialist worthy of very strong consideration is Steve Webster, who has finished first and third on his two previous visits, and made the top-10 on his last four Portugese outings.
Finally, I gave strong consideration to two players around the 66/1 mark who are making their course debuts. Rafael Cabrera-Bello showed with that dramatic 60 to win the Austrian Open that he is capable of very low scores, and I have always felt that his best golf would be seen on this type of golf course in Southern Europe. Equally, Louis Oosthuisen has shown a couple of hints recently that he is returning to the stellar form seen at the start of the year, and again, the South African should be ideally suited by this layout.
Advised golf bets:
2.5pts ew ROSS FISHER @ 20/1 (GENERAL)
1.5pts ew ALEXANDER NOREN @ 33/1 (GENERAL)
1.5pts ew ALVARO QUIROS @ 33/1 (GENERAL)
1.5pts ew CHARL SCHWARTZEL @ 40/1 (GENERAL)
1pt ew DANNY WILLETT @ 55/1 (VCBET, 60/1 SKYBET)
LONG-TERM ALREADY ADVISED
RACE TO DUBAI
2.5pts ew ROSS FISHER @ 20/1
2.5pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 20/1
6pts win PAUL CASEY @ 8/1
1.5pts ew OLIVER WILSON @ 33/1
2008/2009 STATS: -219pts
2007/2008 STATS: +618pts