The US Open starts on Thursday at Pebble Beach, here are the US Open bets to avoid according to the GM Tipster
US Open Bets To Avoid
This year the US Open is going to be played at the beautiful yet treacherous Pebble Beach, where the wind, the thick rough and the small green complexes will make it a hugely tricky test for all the players in the field.
We’ve analysed the competitors and come up with five favourites you should consider avoiding in the betting markets…
People often talk about Justin Rose being an ideal US Open player, a product of his tee-to-green game, his temperament and the fact he often does well on tough golf courses. All that is true, but his form has been strangely inconsistent this season. I know he’s had a win and a top three already this season, but his performances in the year’s first two Majors weren’t up to his normal standards and he’s been more erratic that usual so far in 2019. Unusually, he ranks outside the top 150 on the PGA Tour in Driving Accuracy and outside the top 115 in Greens in Regulation. He’s also missed two of the last three US Open cuts.
Jon Rahm is usually a model of consistency and a top-ten machine, but he’s struggled of late. He missed the cut at the Charles Schwab Challenge and the USPGA Championship – the first back-to-back missed cuts of his career. For context, he only missed five cuts in 2017 and 2018 combined. More concerning is the fact he struggles in the US Open – perhaps a product of his fiery temperament and his comparative lack of patience. He missed the cut at Erin Hills and Shinnecock Hills and I wouldn’t be surprised to see that trend continuing at Pebble Beach.
Much of the pre-tournament talk surrounding the Australian has been about his partnership with renowned caddie Steve Williams. I’m not convinced that will have the desired effect, though. I watched Day closely as part of the featured groups coverage at The Memorial and he was all over the golf course – he had no idea where the ball was going off the tee. He looked to be battling his swing and that doesn’t bode well heading into the toughest examination in golf. Of course, he could have found something on his week off, but I wouldn’t recommend Day this week.
On paper, Paul Casey has the ideal game for US Open golf. He’s one of the best ball-strikers in the game – he’s in the top 20 in the Strokes Gained: Off-the-tee, Strokes Gained: Approach-the-green and Strokes Gained: Tee-to-green statistical categories on the PGA Tour. However, I’ve yet to see an argument to convince me that Casey will end his career with a Major Championship to his name. His putting remains a real issue, especially in the biggest events (he ranks 165th this season in Strokes Gained: Putting), and he’s only managed one top ten in 15 US Open starts.
I know Phil Mickelson loves Pebble Beach – he’s won the Pebble Beach Pro-Am five times – but the course set-up in that event is vastly different to what he’ll encounter this week. Lefty has always struggled to put the ball in play, and his performance in The Memorial at Muirfield Village – a layout with rough similar to Pebble Beach – did nothing to fill me with confidence. Mickelson hasn’t registered a Major top ten since the 2016 Open Championship and he hasn’t finished inside the top ten in any event since his win at Pebble in February. He currently ranks 208th on the PGA Tour in Driving Accuracy, 137th in Strokes Gained: Putting and 102nd in Greens in Regulation – not a great recipe for Major success.